数字经济对区域创新绩效及其空间溢出效应的影响

数字化时代的经济运行方式呈现出数据驱动、万物互联、创新迭代的特征，数字经济的数字化、网络化、智能化属性对创新活动产生了深刻影响。运用空间杜宾模型，对361座城市2010-2018年度数据进行实证检验。检验结果表明，数字经济发展不仅能够带动本地创新绩效提升，而且对周边城市创新绩效也具有显著正向影响；与中、西部地区相比，东部地区数字经济对创新绩效的促进作用更强，空间溢出效应也更显著。由此，建议可从挖掘数据要素价值、搭建数字化平台、推动数字技术创新等角度发展数字经济，促进本地区和周边地区创新绩效共同提升。     

服务业对外直接投资的出口效应——基于我国微观企业的研究

文章基于我国服务业上市企业数据，采用多维固定效应模型，探讨和分析了我国服务业OFDI对服务贸易出口的影响，经研究发现：第一，服务业OFDI通过吸收东道国先进技术经验提升企业生产率水平和避开东道国服务贸易壁垒降低贸易成本，促进企业服务贸易出口增长；第二，我国服务业OFDI显著提升了企业服务贸易出口的二元边际，具体而言，整体上服务业OFDI会促进服务贸易出口增长4.82%，同时会提升企业的出口概率；第三，我国服务业OFDI"出口效应"存在明显的区域和行业的异质性，具体表现为：生产性服务业和消费性服务业OFDI存在显著的"出口效应"，其OFDI带动服务贸易出口的增长分别为5.68%和3.52%，而公共服务业则不存在显著的"出口效应"；东部地区和中部地区服务业OFDI存在显著的"出口效应"，其OFDI带动区域服务贸易出口的增长分别为4.97%和3.56%，而西部地区则不存在显著的"出口效应"。上述研究结论对化解我国服务贸易出口增长困境和完善服务业对外直接投资政策机制具有一定的启示意义。     

中国农业农村发展七十年:成就、经验与展望——中国农业经济学会第十次会员代表大会暨2019年学术研讨会综述

2019 is the 70 th anniversary of the founding of the people’s Republic of China and the key year for implementing the rural vitalization strategy.Summarizing the great achievements made by agriculture and rural areas in the past 70 years will have an important theoretical value for promoting the modernization of agriculture and rural areas and the strategy of rural revitalization.Under such circumstances,the 10 th member congress and 2019 academic seminar of CAAE was successfully held in Beijing.The key to promote rural revitalization lies in deepening rural reform,focus on the property right system and market-oriented allocation of factors,and establish a system and mechanism of free circulation and equal exchange between urban and rural areas.In order to promote the organic connection between small-scale peasant and the modern agriculture,it is necessary to speed up the development of agriculture social service industry.Finally,it is suggested to adhere to the two-wheel drive of rural revitalizationand new urbanization,promote the effective coverage of rural public services,and improve the rural governance mode of combining autonomy,rules of law and virtue.     

新型农村社会养老保险参与决策中的同群效应

我国于2012年实现了社会保障在制度上的全覆盖。然而,对于自愿参与型社会保障项目,政策目标人群的参保率过低,无法充分发挥社会保障体系的风险分担和福利保障作用。2020年,党的十九届五中全会将健全社会保障体系作为“十四五”时期经济社会发展主要目标之一。分析政策目标人群的参保决策,有针对性地提高群众参保率,对于充分发挥社会保障制度的功能和健全社会保障体系具有重要意义。本文以新型农村社会养老保险(新农保)为例,使用家庭调查数据和工具变量方法,考察同群效应在社会保障项目参与决策中的作用。研究发现:同村居民参与新农保的比例每增加10个百分点,个体参保概率显著增加4.24个百分点;同村居民之间的信息传递以及其内部形成的社会规范是同群效应发挥作用的重要渠道;男性的参保行为具有更强的示范效应。本文的研究结论表明,加强基层政策宣传和提高政策透明度,以及有针对性地提高特定群体的参保率是提高社会保障项目整体参与率的有效手段。     

Microfinance and social capital formation- a social network analysis approach

The microcredit program has emerged as an important poverty alleviation strategy over the last three decades, and several studies have examined its economic impacts on the community well-being. However, far too little attention has been paid to the effects of micro credits on community social connection and solidarity. This paper aims to examine the application of Social Network Analysis (SNA) to explore the impact of the rural microcredit fund on community social capitals. In doing so, the data on interactions of four rural development groups' members before and after the microcredit project implementation were collected using participatory workshops in Neyzar village of Qom province in Iran. The data were analyzed by Ucinet software, and the socio-graphs were produced by the NetDraw application. The results show that, more people have been involved in the social interactions after the project implementation and there was statistically significant increase in density and decrease in centralization of cooperation network. Furthermore, there were no important distinctions in centrality of people with various educational levels before and after the project implementation. Overall, it can be concluded that, the microfinance initiative considerably promotes the community social capital and participation in the rural development activities. Moreover, the SNA techniques are applicable as an impact assessment tool to investigate changes in community social capital.     

The Non‐Observed Economy in Portugal: The monetary model and the MIMIC model

This paper offers estimations for the Portuguese path of the Non‐Observed Economy (NOE), in the period 1970–2015, through two seminal approaches: monetary method and the Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes (MIMIC) model. It is observed that the tax burden and social benefits are its main causes. Then, to get a more in‐depth understanding of the phenomenon, it provides a study of the Granger causality between the NOE and the official Gross Domestic Product (GDP), emphasizing the implications of the NOE on the Portuguese economy. Evidence has been found for the existence of bidirectional causality between the NOE and the GDP, suggesting that the formal economy affects the NOE, and conversely that the NOE affects the economic growth.     

Mediating urban transition through rural tourism

This study examines China’s urban–rural transition in the process of development and change. Regarding tourism as a discourse of difference, it focuses on a rural ethnic community, Jiabang, in Southwest China. It aims to highlight the role of tourism in providing a stimulus for the creation of a local group identity that subverts wider discourses of rural areas. With the goal of understanding how toured places are imagined, presented and consumed, this study utilises mixed data sources collected from tourism promotional materials and ethnographic fieldwork. The findings suggest that the forces behind the touristic place creation and consumption are both integral to and the result of the changing attitudes and perceptions of people and places in contemporary China.     

中国股市行业风险与宏观经济之间的风险传导机制

本文采用行业收益率溢出指数度量股市行业风险,并进一步研究中国股市行业风险与宏观经济的相互影响,同时引入股息率和利率两个中介渠道深入挖掘其传导机制。我们运用GARCH-in-Mean模型对股市行业风险和宏观经济变量之间的一阶矩和二阶矩相互关系同时进行分析,结果发现,股市行业风险和宏观经济变量之间水平值和波动率都存在双向影响,对外溢出效应较大的行业起主导作用。此外,股市行业风险对宏观经济变量的影响方面,股息率和利率均起到中介渠道作用;宏观经济变量对股市行业风险的影响方面,只是利率起到中介渠道作用。股市行业风险与宏观经济的传导效应在不同时期差异显著。本文研究结论有助于深刻理解金融与实体经济之间的风险传导机制,对防范系统性风险、防止金融和实体经济“风险共振”以及提升金融服务实体经济能力等具有参考意义。     

中国农村特色扶贫开发道路的制度分析：基于产权的视角

研究目标：借鉴马克思及西方产权理论主要思想，研究揭示中国农村特色扶贫开发道路的制度选择及经验。研究方法：基于产权理论对经济事实进行逻辑推演，并采用1978~2012年中国农村统计数据进行检验。研究发现：中国农村特色扶贫开发道路主要体现在农村资源（土地和人力）的产权制度改革上，由此形成的资源产权激励效应和正向扩散效应，正是中国农村人口发生大规模减贫的最重要原因及主要经验，并构成了中国特色社会主义制度的一部分。研究创新：本文基于产权理论的研究为减贫提供一个新的微观制度视角解释。研究价值：总结提炼中国农村特色扶贫开发道路的一般性理论经验，对今后减贫事业推进具有借鉴意义。     

我们为什么选择了社会主义市场经济

我们选择市场经济，是因为迄今为止的历史证明市场经济是可以富其国裕其民的。然而，我们所要的富裕，不是少数人的富裕，而是人民群众的共同富裕。不仅要富裕，而且必须是共同富裕的市场经济。因此，我们必须对市场经济进行改造，创造出我们自己的市场经济，这就是有中国特色的社会主义市场经济。该文遵循实事求是和历史唯物主义的原则，从市场经济旨在提高效率、社会主义则是坚持党的领导和社会公正、路径依赖和历史沿革体现了市场经济的中国特色等四个方面论证了中国共产党领导全国人民选择社会主义市场经济是一个具有历史必然性的伟大选择。这样的选择使得中国经济发展和人民富裕。